I think that all analyais and conclusions you draw are (no offense) useless, because of one reason you glossed over in the beginning of your article.
Who searches for the name of a distribution? Someone who doesn't *already* have the relevent page for the distribution bookmarked and doesn't already have the relevent information. In the beginning, no one has these things bookmarked. After three years, the big-n-bad userbase of die-hard gurus and strong users has been established. Thus, likely the only people performing searches are newcomers. But if there are many newcomers performing searches, then the distribution is growing.
You're confusing "growth" with "rate of growth". (Slope of a curve versus the slope OF the slope of a curve, review your calculus.) All you did was show that it appears that certain distros have slowing rates of growth, but that's obligatorily true of any popular product in a market with a limited number of users. There is a ceiling, you can't physically have more than # users, thus the more popular you get, the less your growth rate will be in the future.
Only a VERY strong decrase in searches would indicate that the distro is shrinking -- anything else can merely suggest that the rate of increase of the user base is decreasing.
Also, without actual physical numbers, the results are meaningless. If Distro A has a downward trend of growth (ie, downward trend of the number of additional users it is getting), and Disto B has an upward trend, Distro A is still growing faster if its adding 1,000 users a year and B is adding 100 users a year. Rates of increase don't directly corrilate to the existence of increase.
And a FAR more important factor than the number of Google searches is which distros parent which other distros. Ubuntu is nothing without Debian. Logically, Debian can never truely be less popular than Ubuntu because, although fewer people use raw Debian than raw Ubuntu, Ubuntu itself is 90% Debian. Every person who downloads Ubuntu is, practically, downloading Debian. If Debian goes offline, so does Ubuntu, at least until Canonical finds a way to compensate.
Also, we both made the simplifying assumption that newcomers perform most of the searches, when in reality this is distrorted grossely by the fact that it is most people with little experience that perform the majority of the searches. Thus a distro wherein many users come, do a lot of searching, and leave (ie, a high turnover rate), would have an inflated count.
Realistically, Ubuntu is definitely growing and Slackware is definitely dying, but we already knew that.
1369ic
· 1 year ago
As others have pointed out, your methodology and assumptions are off. Right now I'm using Slackware and a Slack derivative, but have probably searched for other distros more over the last couple of years than Slackware (or Zenwalk). Why? Because I keep a spare partition and try out a lot of distros. When I search for them I usually search by name -- Ubuntu madwifi config, for example. Slackware is so standard that I rarely use the term Slackware because a standard Linux answer will be the right one, so I simply search for madwifi config. So maybe what you're seeing is the amount of deviation from the norm as expressed by the fact that the more "customized" a distro is, the more careful you have to be to name the exact distro you're using. Or maybe the fact that a greater percentage of Slackware and Debian users know enough to type "man madwifi" instead of turning to google. Or maybe Debian and Slackware are the distros some people graduate to once they figure out Linux and want more control. Or maybe -- but you get my point. Your graphs are valid, but they are one data set in what should be a universe of data sets that will point you toward the truth.
One additional data point I think you have to consider is the number of derivative distros. Slackware has several and Debian has a ton (including Ubuntu and its progeny) and Fedora is not hurting in this department either.
In other words, interesting stuff, thanks for doing it, but don't over-reach based on one set of data.
Rishabh Mishra (possible248)
· 1 year ago
Thank you for your reply. I enjoyed reading it. You are correct that there are other factors that could be affecting the data in Google Trends.
Of course more experienced users are less likely to use Google for their problem. I also like how you thought of distro customization as a factor.
Cheers. :D
Louis Gray
· 1 year ago
I was "this close" to showing graphs for Linux as well. It's not good.
Very interesting. I don't actually find this surprising, but it does make one ponder. Then again, Linux, much as people who use Linux love it, is a word with a lot of baggage and a lot of history. Linux stands for DIY and hacker and independence and open source and alternative.
But it also represents difficult, ugly, not windows compatible, no software, command line, server, hard to install, and almost as damning: GNU vs open source.
But, Ubuntu, as a brand, has managed to overcome all of those connotations: A) by systematically eliminating each one as a reason for not getting it, and B) by not putting "linux" in its title anywhere. It's sort of brilliant, actually.
Oh-- and it probably doesn't hurt that Archbishop Desmond Tutu once gave a historic speech about the word 'ubuntu'.
directeur
· 1 year ago
I'm a Fedora user, and I must say that Ubuntu made a good marketing job, that's it. When it comes to the "real" job of making Linux accessible, usable and mainstream, I think that it's thanks to other distros. No trolls intended of course :)
Phil Glockner
· 1 year ago
Agreed, Ubuntu is built upon the backs of many other distros. But, if that is what it takes to make the OS finally go mainstream, I don't know if I am completely against the idea.
Rishabh Mishra (possible248)
· 1 year ago
I completely agree with you. I think that Ubuntu's success is a a wonderful sign that things are changing in the desktop market.
Rishi Talreja
· 1 year ago
"But, Ubuntu, as a brand, has managed to overcome all of those connotations: A) by systematically eliminating each one as a reason for not getting it, and B) by not putting "linux" in its title anywhere. It's sort of brilliant, actually."
A is obviously true as Canonical ships free cd's of ubuntu,kubuntu and edubuntu worldwide....however I would like to humbly point out that Ubuntu does include the title as "Ubuntu - linux for human beings" and also the site says "Ubuntu is a community developed, Linux-based operating system that is perfect for laptops, desktops and servers." you see?
Phil Glockner
· 1 year ago
I would call that "Linux with a Qualifier" .. the difference being, older distros always had Linux in the TITLE: Slackware Linux, Redhat Linux, Yellowdog Linux, etc.
yman
· 1 year ago
Those are slogans and background information. Ubuntu used to be called Ubuntu Linux, I think, but now the brand name is just Ubuntu.
Don MacAskill
· 1 year ago
I'll bet CentOS is gaining at Red Hat's expense, too, among the enterprise/IT circles. Not nearly the volume of Ubuntu, given Ubuntu's mass market, but I'll bet it's an upward trend.
Very interesting, but I don't think this is healthy, if all the other distros passed away, and we ended up with just one distro, I believe the innovations in such distro and in the linux as a whole will sure slow down
Rishabh Mishra (possible248)
· 1 year ago
I don't believe that all the other distros would pass away. Newer distros would be created to fill needs that were left open by the ones that died. Consider the new distributions that are based off of Ubuntu.
These statistics don't show something that is wrong with Linux, but that something is changing in the Linux community.
chi
· 1 year ago
kinda sad that debian is falling out of favor, even though ubuntu and a lot of other distros are based on it. i've stopped liking ubuntu because it feels too bloaty, but i guess a lot of people like it for its simplicity
Rishabh Mishra (possible248)
· 1 year ago
Ubuntu has many problems, but it's biggest achievements are its community and its ease-of-use. It's those things that are making it popular.
As for Debian, I don't think that it's future is completely over. I think it has a good place in the Linux enthusiast's hard drive.
littlenoodles
· 1 year ago
I agree if, by ease of use you mean - everything's available in the repositories.
I think Mandriva and, especially PCLinuxOS are even easier to use. The problem is that Mandriva, in trying to push a commercial variant, doesn't help non-paying users to get the non-free stuff themselves. PCLOS comes with all the multimedia working right away, but doesn't have the name recognition, or truth be told, the level of support and web presense of the majors.
Fedora could be great, but again, takes a purist view toward non-free stuff to the point that it's hard to find if you don't know what you're looking for.
So what Ubuntu seems to have gotten right (besides publicity) is a non-conflicted desktop orientation without a need to charge for it. Non-free stuff has been made easy to get (possibly by a separate community effort?). Interestingly, they may ultimately make more money by getting Dell, etc to preinstall them than Mandriva does by charging for a PowerPack.
Adam Williamson
· 1 year ago
This is not accurate.
All non-free software that we (Mandriva) can legally provide without restriction is in the public /non-free repository, and most of it (some is left out for size reasons) is included in the free-of-charge One edition of Mandriva.
The only packages that are exclusive to the commercial edition of Mandriva are packages that cannot legally be generally redistributed - things whose license prohibits this. Honestly, the only really interesting things on there these days are Cedega, Fluendo codecs, and LinDVD (sometimes, it's not in 2008 Spring, patent issues).
The difference between PCLOS and Mandriva here is that PCLOS includes stuff that it is, frankly, illegal to distribute in the U.S (and in the case of dvdcss and win32-codecs, in many other countries too). PCLOS gets away with this because it's too small and non-commercial to be worth the bother of suing (you wouldn't make any actual money out of suing PCLOS). Mandriva, as an actually-existing commercial entity with a bank account and liability insurance, makes a much more attractive target. So we don't include things that we cannot legally include in the distribution, like win32-codecs and patent-encumbered code. This is nothing to do with being evil and keeping it for Powerpack customers (that stuff isn't in Powerpack either), it's a simple matter of abiding by the law.
Adam Williamson Mandriva
Jake (aka Jawee)
· 1 year ago
Interesting, but I highly doubt Google Trends is an accurate count. Why not Distrowatch or even use Compete on the distro websites?
reyawn
· 1 year ago
I believe Ubuntu's success has to do with marketing, financial backing, and word-of-mouth. It has become the "newbie's Linux distribution". Amusingly, it has done this even without offering the comprehensive GUI system administration (Windows control-panel-like) tools that OpenSuSE and Mandriva promote: much of the Ubuntu stuff still has to be done via command line!
I'd imagine that if SuSE or Mandriva had the equivalent financial backing and were being promoted as "newbie-friendly" not only in advertising but heavily via word-of-mouth they likewise would grow to prominence and could seriously threaten Ubuntu's rising position.
Oh, and yes I have tried them all...I do like the Ubuntu-based systems, but some things I don't like out of the box like the default sudo root access for users. In general I enjoy SuSE for YaST, even if other Linux users do bash it for one reason or another.
Rishabh Mishra (possible248)
· 1 year ago
Yes, which is why I consider OpenSUSE another distribution that newbies can try out. I actually had a friend that moved onto OpenSUSE after having experimented with Kubuntu.
Of course, he moved back to Kubuntu a few weeks later...
anon y mouse
· 1 year ago
I have been using OpenSUSE on my home computer since 2005 as I have the computer set-up for the typical tasks. Any hacker development activities are done on one of my servers which I can access via ssh from the desktop computer. I specifically chose OpenSUSE because despite being a long-time user, since 1992, of GNU/Linux I simply wanted a set-up that is suitable for a typical home user. If I want to play games, I have a game console.
Rishabh Mishra (possible248)
· 1 year ago
Yeah, Google Trends isn't exactly the first place that you would go for this. I really only posted this because of the last two graphs displayed in my post.
wezzul
· 1 year ago
Exactly. This isn't really valid at all...
lachild
· 1 year ago
Good article. I like the way you used the search terms to demonstrate what "might" be happening in the market. However I think this is whats really going on.
First, I can't think of any linux user that would recommend Slackware or Debian to any new user. As you pointed out, it's going to be mostly new comers that use the search engine to find a distribution. With that said, we all know the most recommended Linux distribution to new comers is going to be Ubuntu. The next one would be Fedora but with it including beta and untested software in the distro most would not recommend this to the faint of heart. I've never heard of ANYONE since early 2000 recommending Slackware to a newbie, and only a few recommendations for Debian and usually thoughs end with, try Ubuntu first and then once use to it, pick up Debian.
Second, I think the reason you're seeing distros like Slackware still growing is that once you're in to linux you start to explore. Most people I know who've used Linux for awhile tend to settle into Slackware and Debian as there choice distro.
I myself am not worried about the decline in the term "Linux" in the search engine. I think this is a sign that most computer users have now heard of it. What we should start seeing is less general searches like "Linux" and more specific searches on distros themselves.
jarosser06
· 1 year ago
I agree with lachild I think more and more people are beginning to find out about Linux and are going after specific distributions especially after the gigantic public stoning of Vista.
calc
· 1 year ago
> Second, I think the reason you're seeing distros like Slackware still growing is > that once you're in to linux you start to explore. Most people I know who've > used Linux for awhile tend to settle into Slackware and Debian as there > choice distro.
They do?
I used Slackware from 1995-1998, Debian from 1998-2004, and Ubuntu since 2004. Slackware doesn't even have a packaging system does it, relying on just a bunch of tarballs? I still upload packages for Debian every now and then but not that often anymore. Debian's releases are so few and far between that most users end up having to use 'sid' which is the unstable version if they want software that isn't relatively ancient. Fedora, OpenSUSE and Ubuntu all release roughly every 6 months so you can stay up to date with relatively stable software.
Andrey
· 1 year ago
If you really used Slackware, you should know WHY its packaging system is what it is and HOW it differs from a bunch of tarballs.
calc
· 1 year ago
Search for my 'nick' on db.debian.org then put the pieces together once you know my name. :-)
To the best of my knowledge Slackware's packaging system is the way it is due to originally being distributed on floppies, one set of disks per category, and before any real packaging systems existed (deb/rpm etc didn't exist at the time), I apparently got one of the first versions released on cd early in 1995, version 2.1, I still have the cd in my garage somewhere. But it is just a bunch of tarballs, all compressed in the same manner to be extracted at the root of the system. I just downloaded a slackware tgz file to verify it is the same as when I last used it over 10 years ago.
calc
· 1 year ago
If you look at the google trends data for windows it also has dropped by about half over the graphs timeline. So it doesn't look like Linux really has anything to worry about unless it is users just becoming generally less technical.
pclos
· 1 year ago
Pclos is a great distro its that good that i need no support to get it working,and yes y dont google pclos coz till now yi got all what i need perfectly working,ica,sky ,IM,vmw,multimedia,hd tuner,some games Hl+episodes+online,q4,d4,cod4,open office,and no i havent need to use cli,hack into anything,y just works at least for me.....
David
· 1 year ago
Your graphs are interesting but your conclusion made me LMAO. You assume that because people are searching for the term Ubuntu then that means that Ubuntu has been successful in developing a user friendly distro of Linux. Really? Did you stop to think why people do a Google search which includes the term Ubuntu? I normally search using my distros name because I have some type of PROBLEM!!! Which I'm guessing is the main reason why people are searching for the term Ubuntu, they are having PROBLEMS. I've run Ubuntu on a test machine for about two years and every new version seems to get buggier and more problematic. But when you look at the other distros which you have provided graphs for (which I also run on test machines) they seem to have improved and are less problematic, hence fewer people searching for problems. So basically your graphs show that Ubuntu really is getting worse. Not a good sign if you ask me.
Stix213
· 1 year ago
The biggest flaw in your logic, is that even if you are correct that you only search for "Ubuntu" when you have problems... that still means you are using Ubuntu and have at least some personal commitment to making it work for you.
I have been running Ubuntu on my work laptop for some time now, and I frequently search google with the term "Ubuntu" but usually not because of problems, but because I want to learn how to do something new.
How about you go yourself to Google Trends and layer many of the distos over each other... that's where you get the real shock when you see that the images in this article are all at different scales and Ubuntu actually is shooting up like a rocket compared to all other disto's. But you'd claim that is because no one really is using it and people are just searching because they are having problems???? right....
cenc
· 1 year ago
This really proves or shows nothing that distro watch does not show. Which is essentially nothing. It does not show clicks vs use or new users vs old users. The data could be shown more stable distrobutions among current users, requiring less searching in google for say bug fixes, packages, information. The type in traffic also for the older more mature distros direct to the sites eliminates google from the search.
What about cases like Fedora? They do not capture searches for Red Hat, CentOS, or other server centric uses. Distros where the users is likely a systems admin that does not need a lot of community help to fix things.
What about all the distros that have projects based on them? PClinuxOS vs Mandriva for instance? Or the grand kids such as minme edition of PClinuxOS? All of which are more rolling distributions where updates are done automatically.
So there is plenty of reasons why this shows nothing. Ubuntu is far from the face of linux.
davidrware
· 1 year ago
It looks like Linux will eventually become much more narrow that it once was. I shudder at the thought of a world with only one or two different distros. It'd be like opensource Windows!
Snappy
· 1 year ago
Great post. Good to spot the trend and hopefully spur the community to do something.
I personally see Ubuntu as the face, *and* door into the linux world. Most users stay on as Ubuntu users, but a good number would then start to see the Debian distro underneath or the other distros once they become more adapted to the linux os model.
The community need to see the benefit and strength of having a Face for linux, much like Linux was the Face / Posterboy for the GNU or FOSS. In-community fighting will breed competition (healthy), but can spread resources too thin (bad!). Hopefully we strike a balance somewhere.
How about posting two other trends for XP and Vista? It should be revealing to do a side-by-side comparison
Dan
· 1 year ago
What you overlooked is that "Hits Per Day" does NOT mean "Number of Users" and that not everybody uses Google.
timhoeck
· 1 year ago
Everyone here hits nails on the head... I still try out a number of distros on a regular basis, but I stick with Ubuntu.. for now. I'll go ahead and say it.. there is still a long ways to go in usability for Linux in general. I still find myself at the command line 75% of the time (yes, that is a downfall for me on an OS. Not that it is available, but needing to rely on it). But maybe that's just me - or maybe I need the right distro ;) I also agree that hits for 'ubuntu' vs. hits for 'linux' shows nothing... this could just mean as mentioned that people now tend to search for their distro name instead of the general linux term - because you tend to get more specific results for your distro. Add linux along with any other distro names together and I just see great numbers and advancement for linux.
PCLinuxOS was on top of distrowatch for 6-12 months (with no marketing to speak of) and as you move further away from the 2007 release date it keeps dropping. Is it dying? Hardly, its just a normal cycle that will go back up when the next version is released and its more pronounced when you dont have mindshare.
Tex needs to get himself in a spaceship. .
zolix
· 1 year ago
I think it stands for only the trend of "searching in the wild". A lot of usable information can be found in forums and wiki pages, and the searching by their internal engines isn't shown here. It means for me, people can use the net more professional way, searching are more purposeful inside thematic sites. The communities are growing up, so not necessary to search anything through the whole internet.
Ubuntu almost looks dead. BTW, I use Ubuntu but it is getting OS bloat and once users start to see this Debian will revive itself.
calc
· 1 year ago
That comparison is actually a lot better than you make it out to be, the fact that Vista is only (what appears to be) 3.10x the search rate of Ubuntu is outstanding. (Windows) Vista goes out on pretty much every shipped computer in the world. The last figure I heard was that Windows is on over 600 million computers and Linux has somewhere under 50 million combined.
paul21
· 1 year ago
Wrong! The word "vista" means "sight" in Spanish so it's a very common search term. You should use "Windows Vista" instead:
Conclusion: Ubuntu is more popular than Windows Vista
JoseGosdin
· 1 year ago
Sir - I would like to make a request that you re-evaluate your conclusion that Debian is "dying" (per your title) and Fedora is a distribution that "new Linux users are going for." If you look at a comparison chart between Debian and Fedora ( http://www.google.com/trends?q=debian,+fedora ) it becomes plainly evident that Debian and Fedora are showing similar trends in the downward direction.
Also, scale matters in these Google Trends graphs as they are normalized using average hits. The gap between Linux and Ubuntu in your last graph appears quite close but it is far larger (in raw numbers, not percentages) than the spacing in your other graphs. Why do your graphs have no scale yet the graphs from Google do?
Signed,
Jose Gosdin
Crazy Alex
· 1 year ago
Yes. Newbies and windows idiots found their distro, and they don't use Debian or Slackware... it's normal, I'd say. If user wants box with button "DO ME GOOD" - it's his problem. Classic distributions (not "user" - but professional-friendly) will always find their users and contributors, and if masses will use Linux - we will get hardware support...
Nikesh
· 1 year ago
I am not a big fan of ubuntu. And people has started using Ubuntu, and that's the reason other distro is going down.
Ubuntu is not linux, if you want to use the true power of linux, use Debian, redhat, OpenSuse, Slackware, Gentto , etc ..
"Apparently many people in the Linux community think that a packager manager must by definition include dependency checking. Well, that simply isn't the case, as Slackware most certainly does not. This is not to say that Slackware packages don't have dependencies, but rather that its package manager doesn't check for them. Dependency management is left up to the sysadmin, and that's the way we like it."
In other words - if you're too stupid to check for dependencies yourself, you shouldn't be using our OS. That's great for Slackware enthusiasts and experienced sysadmins, but for the rest of us that statement comes off rather pretentious. Slackware was the first distro I tried back in 1996, and I'll never try it again, just based on that one statement alone.
PimpitySnicket
· 1 year ago
Wow you're a fuckin dumb ass... Have you ever even used Debian or Slackware? (I don't mean a derivative like Ubuntu or Knoppix)
Ondra
· 1 year ago
so...you measure distro popularity by...how many people google it ? how about having a running server on debian and that's it...it runs, apt-get upgrade from time to time and if you need a new one, you just deploy your image and customize it ?
I love dickheads who write but don't actually use the stuff they write about...
and...where is gentoo ? arch linux ? centos - we use that at work, just image a drive, edit hostname and ip configuration and a sales management server for one shop with VPN back to HQ with oracle db which it mirrors is ready.
Wade Mealing
· 1 year ago
The information is a little biased.
Google no longer indexes Red Hats bugzilla. But it does index launchpad. Bugs count as mentions.
John Griffiths
· 1 year ago
interesting stuff, well done putting this one together.
i think the problem with Debian is that they haven't done a new release in so long that the product gets stale, much like other distrubutions. Seems to show if you're not in the press a lot and releasing frequently your fans are gonna disappear.
Rishabh Mishra (possible248)
· 1 year ago
Thank you for your comment. I do not believe that Debian is going to die. It simply won't be a choice for beginner Linux users. My original intention in the post was to point out that the data about Linux distributions as shown by Google Trends is interesting, and that the reader should draw his or her own conclusions based upon it.
rhavenn
· 1 year ago
Ubuntu is Debian with a more defined setup of packages, some additional commercial apps and support. Without standing on Debian's shoulders Ubuntu would be nothing. So, with increased usage of Ubuntu you also have increased usage of Debian, if somewhat indirectly.
Martin Allchin
· 1 year ago
"After all, wouldn’t experienced Linux users already know where the websites of the big Linux distributions are?"
No -- if I want to visit Ubuntu's homepage I type 'ubuntu' into the address bar and press enter. Firefox queries Google for the most likely page and redirects me. This flags as a hit for 'Ubuntu' by Google.
I think it would be pretty obvious the more interest someone has in a subject the more likely they are to Google it.
matt
· 1 year ago
i may be an idiot, but are these graphs missing a Y axis?
Rishabh Mishra (possible248)
· 1 year ago
Sorry, it appears that the numbers on the Y axis appear when the user is logged in. As I took the screenshots when I was logged out, it is not visible.
Kyle
· 1 year ago
For better info on the trends of distros why not use distro watch?
I'm passively worried that Ubuntu will be the cause of poisoning the Linux community with standardization. I hope it doesn't turn into a Mac OS.
aix
· 1 year ago
Ubuntu got alot of publicity behind it and they give away free cds!! that why its at the top Debian is one of the best distros out there, and slackware is where you learn linux basics and just not go click with the mouse and if something doesnt work you erase all and start again.
got67you
· 1 year ago
I prefer Debian over Ubuntu.: I haven't experimented with latest versions of the to others though, since like suse 10 or fedora core 4.
JMiahMan
· 1 year ago
Wow another article from another Ubuntu fan. This has too be the first one I've ever seen not like every freakin' worthless Linux blog doesn't have them. The purpose was? I guess it was for me to waste my time posting here ;)
JohnMc
· 1 year ago
I might point out that Google Trends is somewhat misleading as it is news about a topic. Not necessarioy the adoption rate. I would also point that Ubuntu is unique in that it wants to be adopted. That generates tons of newbie chatter upping their Trends presence. Trends would also underreport the experienced slackware or RHEL admin who makes one copy of the iso and propriagates it across the enterprise with nary peep .
Not that I am dissing Ubuntu. I use it on various systmes.
aliasxerog
· 1 year ago
if debian dies so does ubuntu
Debianero
· 1 year ago
Ubuntu is nothing is Debian disappear
lin
· 1 year ago
I'd like to try Ubuntu but I was warned to be very careful about using Linux.
After reading The Truth about Linux I really don't want all my work to be owned by the Microsoft Corporation because of infringing software.
How long can I use Ubuntu for? If I use it for 30 days and delete it afterwards will I still get sued?
Rishabh Mishra (possible248)
· 1 year ago
Please excuse me, but I am very sure that "The Truth about Linux" is a joke.
There is no danger in trying out Ubuntu Linux. It is very user friendly, has good hardware support (though you still may have _some_ troubles), and it has a good community that will help you with any troubles that you see.
Joe
· 1 year ago
One Note, Ubuntu is derived from Debian code base, no Debian, no Ubuntu.
Penguin Guy
· 1 year ago
Also, Debian feeds several other distributions, including Ubuntu. Likewise, so does Red Hat.
dude
· 1 year ago
Ubuntu is becoming a synonym for Linux. That is a fact. We are starting to notice manufacturers picking up interest about the distribution which is by far the easiest Linux distro out there. I am convinced in couple of years Ubuntu will be ubiquitous on low cost machines.
LLB
· 1 year ago
A graph you didn't show, but which might have been enlightening, is that the trends for Fedora and Debian, minus the Fedora spikes, are almost identical.
guitarMan66
· 1 year ago
I'm not surprised at all. Ubuntu is the first distro most people (including me) learn about. It's a nice distro. All of my friends who are getting into linux i point toward Ubuntu.
Peter
· 1 year ago
Slackware still exists? I remember trying it out in the mid 90s, didn't think it was still around.
I've been waiting for this type of article for a couple years now. Someone with too much free time assuming page hits and searches in google represent user base. *Yawn* Could it possibly mean that people learn enough about their OS to not need a google search a day for disabling ip6 or getting their X drivers working properly? Naw, we are all stupid for the long haul. We forget everything and need to search in Google for the Slackware or Debian site all the time to get updates and use our computers productively each and every day. Could it mean that some might have finaly settled into a distribution in the last 8-9 years and don't need to google every little thing?? Nah... couldn't be possible. Linux is to hard. Thanks for yet another pointless article about GNU/Linux that keeps Digg alive and kicking.
Rob
· 9 months ago
Hey, This is just the sort of thing I have been looking at. I've compared closely the rise of Ubuntu, the progress of Fedora, and the browser wars... all how they compare on Google Trends.
whats going to happen to Debian? I think that depends on how Ubuntu server does. If Ubuntu server does well, i wouln't be suprised to see them merge with Ubuntu. At which point we will see the emergence of the Constantine of Linux. Slackware is maintained by one person. It is a relatively difficult disro. People dont use slackware for ease of use. Or for popularity, they use it because they want to learn how to do things the hard way, and dont want marketing types or anyone else telling them want they have to use or not use,and especially someone telling them what they have to put on their machine.
I wouldnt be suprised to see two break off paths. one for user linux, the other for creator/programer linux. i dont think you will drag the programmer types into the user drama. Thats why they like linux. They like freedom, not drama. Honestly I am amazed at the rockstart status of linux people lately. Linux outlaws podcast for example doesnt tell you how to do ONE thing on a linux system..they spend most of they time making snyde comments about political issues, and making fun of distro names. I for one would be glad to see Linux become more about computer use in the near future.
Frank's Gout Medicine
· 5 months ago
The older distros are not necessarily dying. It's just that with desktop linux breaking into the mainstream, more and more people are trying linux who would never have tried it if it were packaged the way it were with Debian or Slackware. So their growth is eclipsing that of the older distros.
As a diehard Slackware fan, I frankly don't really see what newer distros like Ubuntu give people who do not use Linux for the desktop (I use Linux for server and stick to Windows as a desktop OS, trust me, it's superior to any Linux distro for that task...)
harrybarracuda
· 4 months ago
It's an interesting article. Personally I try many distributions for fun as and when they come out. I discard anything that doesn't support the hardware OOTB (I include Live distributions and ones you have to install). Generally speaking, Ubuntu and its derivatives do, and the rest don't.
It's my humble opinion that this is what gives it the legs. The developers of Fedora, OpenSUSE, Mandriva, etc., should really put effort into broadening the base of hardware supported, and simplifying its installation. I boot up a live CD of something or other and it doesn't support my wifi, or I have to p*ss about to get the graphics card working, I'm not going to bother.
moran
· 2 months ago
you are retarded if you think that Google trends is any indicator of how popular something it. get a brain moran!
zspace
· 2 months ago
Got to love those biyearly jumps in searches for ubuntu.
David
· 2 months ago
You might want to look into the difference between correlation and causation. You can't infer that fewer search terms in Google equate to a distro dying off and expect to be taken seriously. You need to find better sources of data, otherwise your findings are meaningless. For instance, you could look at the number of downloads in a given period of time. But Google Trends in this case is useless data, as it can only possibly show a correlation, and even then, there may be no actual correlation to reality. For all you know, people are changing their search engine of choice, or simply don't feel the need to plug the term into a search engine any longer as they know where to go for help or information. There's no way to tell without solid statistics to back up your claims.
All Comments
Who searches for the name of a distribution? Someone who doesn't *already* have the relevent page for the distribution bookmarked and doesn't already have the relevent information. In the beginning, no one has these things bookmarked. After three years, the big-n-bad userbase of die-hard gurus and strong users has been established. Thus, likely the only people performing searches are newcomers. But if there are many newcomers performing searches, then the distribution is growing.
You're confusing "growth" with "rate of growth". (Slope of a curve versus the slope OF the slope of a curve, review your calculus.) All you did was show that it appears that certain distros have slowing rates of growth, but that's obligatorily true of any popular product in a market with a limited number of users. There is a ceiling, you can't physically have more than # users, thus the more popular you get, the less your growth rate will be in the future.
Only a VERY strong decrase in searches would indicate that the distro is shrinking -- anything else can merely suggest that the rate of increase of the user base is decreasing.
Also, without actual physical numbers, the results are meaningless. If Distro A has a downward trend of growth (ie, downward trend of the number of additional users it is getting), and Disto B has an upward trend, Distro A is still growing faster if its adding 1,000 users a year and B is adding 100 users a year. Rates of increase don't directly corrilate to the existence of increase.
And a FAR more important factor than the number of Google searches is which distros parent which other distros. Ubuntu is nothing without Debian. Logically, Debian can never truely be less popular than Ubuntu because, although fewer people use raw Debian than raw Ubuntu, Ubuntu itself is 90% Debian. Every person who downloads Ubuntu is, practically, downloading Debian. If Debian goes offline, so does Ubuntu, at least until Canonical finds a way to compensate.
Also, we both made the simplifying assumption that newcomers perform most of the searches, when in reality this is distrorted grossely by the fact that it is most people with little experience that perform the majority of the searches. Thus a distro wherein many users come, do a lot of searching, and leave (ie, a high turnover rate), would have an inflated count.
Realistically, Ubuntu is definitely growing and Slackware is definitely dying, but we already knew that.
One additional data point I think you have to consider is the number of derivative distros. Slackware has several and Debian has a ton (including Ubuntu and its progeny) and Fedora is not hurting in this department either.
In other words, interesting stuff, thanks for doing it, but don't over-reach based on one set of data.
Of course more experienced users are less likely to use Google for their problem. I also like how you thought of distro customization as a factor.
Cheers. :D
See:
http://www.louisgray.com/graphics/gtrends_linux...
I also made one for Slashdot (vs. Digg) and didn't include it:
http://www.louisgray.com/graphics/gtrends_slash...
But it also represents difficult, ugly, not windows compatible, no software, command line, server, hard to install, and almost as damning: GNU vs open source.
But, Ubuntu, as a brand, has managed to overcome all of those connotations: A) by systematically eliminating each one as a reason for not getting it, and B) by not putting "linux" in its title anywhere. It's sort of brilliant, actually.
Oh-- and it probably doesn't hurt that Archbishop Desmond Tutu once gave a historic speech about the word 'ubuntu'.
A is obviously true as Canonical ships free cd's of ubuntu,kubuntu and edubuntu worldwide....however I would like to humbly point out that Ubuntu does include the title as "Ubuntu - linux for human beings" and also the site says "Ubuntu is a community developed, Linux-based operating system that is perfect for laptops, desktops and servers." you see?
distros always had Linux in the TITLE: Slackware Linux, Redhat Linux,
Yellowdog Linux, etc.
Here's at least part of the reason: http://blogs.smugmug.com/don/2007/03/23/the-ent...
These statistics don't show something that is wrong with Linux, but that something is changing in the Linux community.
As for Debian, I don't think that it's future is completely over. I think it has a good place in the Linux enthusiast's hard drive.
I think Mandriva and, especially PCLinuxOS are even easier to use. The problem is that Mandriva, in trying to push a commercial variant, doesn't help non-paying users to get the non-free stuff themselves. PCLOS comes with all the multimedia working right away, but doesn't have the name recognition, or truth be told, the level of support and web presense of the majors.
Fedora could be great, but again, takes a purist view toward non-free stuff to the point that it's hard to find if you don't know what you're looking for.
So what Ubuntu seems to have gotten right (besides publicity) is a non-conflicted desktop orientation without a need to charge for it. Non-free stuff has been made easy to get (possibly by a separate community effort?). Interestingly, they may ultimately make more money by getting Dell, etc to preinstall them than Mandriva does by charging for a PowerPack.
All non-free software that we (Mandriva) can legally provide without restriction is in the public /non-free repository, and most of it (some is left out for size reasons) is included in the free-of-charge One edition of Mandriva.
The only packages that are exclusive to the commercial edition of Mandriva are packages that cannot legally be generally redistributed - things whose license prohibits this. Honestly, the only really interesting things on there these days are Cedega, Fluendo codecs, and LinDVD (sometimes, it's not in 2008 Spring, patent issues).
The difference between PCLOS and Mandriva here is that PCLOS includes stuff that it is, frankly, illegal to distribute in the U.S (and in the case of dvdcss and win32-codecs, in many other countries too). PCLOS gets away with this because it's too small and non-commercial to be worth the bother of suing (you wouldn't make any actual money out of suing PCLOS). Mandriva, as an actually-existing commercial entity with a bank account and liability insurance, makes a much more attractive target. So we don't include things that we cannot legally include in the distribution, like win32-codecs and patent-encumbered code. This is nothing to do with being evil and keeping it for Powerpack customers (that stuff isn't in Powerpack either), it's a simple matter of abiding by the law.
Adam Williamson
Mandriva
I'd imagine that if SuSE or Mandriva had the equivalent financial backing and were being promoted as "newbie-friendly" not only in advertising but heavily via word-of-mouth they likewise would grow to prominence and could seriously threaten Ubuntu's rising position.
Oh, and yes I have tried them all...I do like the Ubuntu-based systems, but some things I don't like out of the box like the default sudo root access for users. In general I enjoy SuSE for YaST, even if other Linux users do bash it for one reason or another.
Of course, he moved back to Kubuntu a few weeks later...
First, I can't think of any linux user that would recommend Slackware or Debian to any new user. As you pointed out, it's going to be mostly new comers that use the search engine to find a distribution. With that said, we all know the most recommended Linux distribution to new comers is going to be Ubuntu. The next one would be Fedora but with it including beta and untested software in the distro most would not recommend this to the faint of heart. I've never heard of ANYONE since early 2000 recommending Slackware to a newbie, and only a few recommendations for Debian and usually thoughs end with, try Ubuntu first and then once use to it, pick up Debian.
Second, I think the reason you're seeing distros like Slackware still growing is that once you're in to linux you start to explore. Most people I know who've used Linux for awhile tend to settle into Slackware and Debian as there choice distro.
I myself am not worried about the decline in the term "Linux" in the search engine. I think this is a sign that most computer users have now heard of it. What we should start seeing is less general searches like "Linux" and more specific searches on distros themselves.
> that once you're in to linux you start to explore. Most people I know who've
> used Linux for awhile tend to settle into Slackware and Debian as there
> choice distro.
They do?
I used Slackware from 1995-1998, Debian from 1998-2004, and Ubuntu since 2004. Slackware doesn't even have a packaging system does it, relying on just a bunch of tarballs? I still upload packages for Debian every now and then but not that often anymore. Debian's releases are so few and far between that most users end up having to use 'sid' which is the unstable version if they want software that isn't relatively ancient. Fedora, OpenSUSE and Ubuntu all release roughly every 6 months so you can stay up to date with relatively stable software.
To the best of my knowledge Slackware's packaging system is the way it is due to originally being distributed on floppies, one set of disks per category, and before any real packaging systems existed (deb/rpm etc didn't exist at the time), I apparently got one of the first versions released on cd early in 1995, version 2.1, I still have the cd in my garage somewhere. But it is just a bunch of tarballs, all compressed in the same manner to be extracted at the root of the system. I just downloaded a slackware tgz file to verify it is the same as when I last used it over 10 years ago.
I have been running Ubuntu on my work laptop for some time now, and I frequently search google with the term "Ubuntu" but usually not because of problems, but because I want to learn how to do something new.
How about you go yourself to Google Trends and layer many of the distos over each other... that's where you get the real shock when you see that the images in this article are all at different scales and Ubuntu actually is shooting up like a rocket compared to all other disto's. But you'd claim that is because no one really is using it and people are just searching because they are having problems???? right....
What about cases like Fedora? They do not capture searches for Red Hat, CentOS, or other server centric uses. Distros where the users is likely a systems admin that does not need a lot of community help to fix things.
What about all the distros that have projects based on them? PClinuxOS vs Mandriva for instance? Or the grand kids such as minme edition of PClinuxOS? All of which are more rolling distributions where updates are done automatically.
So there is plenty of reasons why this shows nothing. Ubuntu is far from the face of linux.
I personally see Ubuntu as the face, *and* door into the linux world. Most users stay on as Ubuntu users, but a good number would then start to see the Debian distro underneath or the other distros once they become more adapted to the linux os model.
The community need to see the benefit and strength of having a Face for linux, much like Linux was the Face / Posterboy for the GNU or FOSS. In-community fighting will breed competition (healthy), but can spread resources too thin (bad!). Hopefully we strike a balance somewhere.
How about posting two other trends for XP and Vista? It should be revealing to do a side-by-side comparison
Take a look at this:
Mandriva, Opensuse: http://www.google.com/trends?q=mandriva%2C+open...
PS: I'm a Kubuntu user right now, but still...
PCLinuxOS was on top of distrowatch for 6-12 months (with no marketing to speak of) and as you move further away from the 2007 release date it keeps dropping.
Is it dying?
Hardly, its just a normal cycle that will go back up when the next version is released and its more pronounced when you dont have mindshare.
Tex needs to get himself in a spaceship.
.
http://trends.google.com/trends?q=ubuntu%2C+vis...
Ubuntu almost looks dead. BTW, I use Ubuntu but it is getting OS bloat and once users start to see this Debian will revive itself.
http://trends.google.com/trends?q=ubuntu,+windo...
Conclusion: Ubuntu is more popular than Windows Vista
Also, scale matters in these Google Trends graphs as they are normalized using average hits. The gap between Linux and Ubuntu in your last graph appears quite close but it is far larger (in raw numbers, not percentages) than the spacing in your other graphs. Why do your graphs have no scale yet the graphs from Google do?
Signed,
Jose Gosdin
If user wants box with button "DO ME GOOD" - it's his problem.
Classic distributions (not "user" - but professional-friendly) will always find their users and contributors, and if masses will use Linux - we will get hardware support...
Ubuntu is not linux, if you want to use the true power of linux, use Debian, redhat, OpenSuse, Slackware, Gentto , etc ..
Kubuntu ftw!
http://hehe2.net/linux-general/linux-a-search-e...
JT
http://www.Ultimate-Anonymity.com
Cheers.
http://trends.google.com/trends?q=arch+linux&ct...
"Apparently many people in the Linux community think that a packager manager must by definition include dependency checking. Well, that simply isn't the case, as Slackware most certainly does not. This is not to say that Slackware packages don't have dependencies, but rather that its package manager doesn't check for them. Dependency management is left up to the sysadmin, and that's the way we like it."
In other words - if you're too stupid to check for dependencies yourself, you shouldn't be using our OS. That's great for Slackware enthusiasts and experienced sysadmins, but for the rest of us that statement comes off rather pretentious. Slackware was the first distro I tried back in 1996, and I'll never try it again, just based on that one statement alone.
I love dickheads who write but don't actually use the stuff they write about...
and...where is gentoo ? arch linux ? centos - we use that at work, just image a drive, edit hostname and ip configuration and a sales management server for one shop with VPN back to HQ with oracle db which it mirrors is ready.
Google no longer indexes Red Hats bugzilla. But it does index launchpad. Bugs count as mentions.
i think the problem with Debian is that they haven't done a new release in so long that the product gets stale, much like other distrubutions. Seems to show if you're not in the press a lot and releasing frequently your fans are gonna disappear.
No -- if I want to visit Ubuntu's homepage I type 'ubuntu' into the address bar and press enter. Firefox queries Google for the most likely page and redirects me. This flags as a hit for 'Ubuntu' by Google.
I think it would be pretty obvious the more interest someone has in a subject the more likely they are to Google it.
http://distrowatch.com/
Debian is one of the best distros out there, and slackware is where you learn linux basics and just not go click with the mouse and if something doesnt work you erase all and start again.
Not that I am dissing Ubuntu. I use it on various systmes.
After reading The Truth about Linux I really don't want all my work to be owned by the Microsoft Corporation because of infringing software.
How long can I use Ubuntu for? If I use it for 30 days and delete it afterwards will I still get sued?
There is no danger in trying out Ubuntu Linux. It is very user friendly, has good hardware support (though you still may have _some_ troubles), and it has a good community that will help you with any troubles that you see.
Could it mean that some might have finaly settled into a distribution in the last 8-9 years and don't need to google every little thing?? Nah... couldn't be possible. Linux is to hard.
Thanks for yet another pointless article about GNU/Linux that keeps Digg alive and kicking.
I've posted an article about my results. See the article here:
http://linuxsoftwareblog.com/blog/?p=115
thanks
If Ubuntu server does well, i wouln't be suprised to see them merge with Ubuntu.
At which point we will see the emergence of the Constantine of Linux.
Slackware is maintained by one person. It is a relatively difficult disro.
People dont use slackware for ease of use. Or for popularity, they use it because they want to learn how to do things the hard way, and dont want marketing types or anyone else telling them want they have to use or not use,and especially someone telling them what they have to put on their machine.
I wouldnt be suprised to see two break off paths. one for user linux, the other for creator/programer linux. i dont think you will drag the programmer types into the user drama. Thats why they like linux. They like freedom, not drama.
Honestly I am amazed at the rockstart status of linux people lately. Linux outlaws podcast for example doesnt tell you how to do ONE thing on a linux system..they spend most of they time making snyde comments about political issues, and making fun of distro names. I for one would be glad to see Linux become more about computer use in the near future.
As a diehard Slackware fan, I frankly don't really see what newer distros like Ubuntu give people who do not use Linux for the desktop (I use Linux for server and stick to Windows as a desktop OS, trust me, it's superior to any Linux distro for that task...)
It's my humble opinion that this is what gives it the legs. The developers of Fedora, OpenSUSE, Mandriva, etc., should really put effort into broadening the base of hardware supported, and simplifying its installation. I boot up a live CD of something or other and it doesn't support my wifi, or I have to p*ss about to get the graphics card working, I'm not going to bother.
http://www.google.ca/trends?q=archlinux%2C+slac...